GutSays

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GutSays Documentation

GutSays is the first purely sentiment driven, onchain prediction market on Solana.

1. Introduction

GutSays was launched during the pump.fun "Build in Public" hackathon and allows users to trade on the likelihood of real world events without centralized oracles or resolution delays.

Why GutSays?

Unlike traditional markets like Polymarket, GutSays does not wait for a source of truth. We believe the market's liquidity is the truth.

  • Permissionless: Anyone can launch an event.
  • Multi-Outcome: Up to 8 distinct outcomes per event.
  • Infinite Trading: Markets never close for payouts; they evolve with the narrative.

2. Core Mechanics

Every event in GutSays is composed of a basket of Outcome Tokens.

  • Supply: Every outcome token is minted with a fixed supply of 1 Billion.
  • Trading: Tokens are traded like any other SPL token.
  • Pricing: Token value represents the collective gut feeling of the market.

3. The Math: Probability vs. Liquidity

Instead of using a centralized oracle to determine who won, GutSays uses Liquidity Weighting to determine the current probability of an outcome.

The probability P of a specific outcome i is calculated by comparing its liquidity against the total liquidity of all possible outcomes in that event:

P_i = L_i / Σ(j=1 to n) L_j
  • L_i: Liquidity of the specific outcome token.
  • Σ L_j: Total liquidity across all (up to 8) outcome tokens.

4. Creating an Event

GutSays is designed for the community. No permission is required to start a market.

  1. Define the Event: Pose a question (for example, "Who wins the 2026 World Cup?").
  2. Set Outcomes: Add up to 8 potential results.
  3. Deploy: The event launches as SPL tokens ready for the Solana ecosystem.

5. Trading & Risk (The "No-Payout" Model)

Important: GutSays operates differently than traditional betting platforms.
  • No Resolution: There is no final judge who declares a winner.
  • No Guaranteed Payouts: You do not win a shared pool if you are right.
  • Sentiment Trading: Profit comes from buying undervalued outcome tokens and selling after sentiment liquidity increases.

Note: Think of it as trading a memecoin tied to a specific event. The winner is the token the market values highest at any given time.